All Hazards Security http://www.allhazardssecurity.com/
By Ted Wade, MA
Mass shootings and terrorist attacks using similar tactics have become more common and pose a risk that every protection professional must address. The Orlando nightclub shooting and other events dominate the news cycle for days, and spark policy debates for much longer. What trends should we expect to see in regards to mass shootings and active threats? What can protection professionals do to address these trends?
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First we have to accept that these events are going to continue to happen. No policy change or law is going to make these attacks stop in the near future. Even in the unlikely event that attackers are prevented from access to firearms, they may simply choose other weapons to commit mass violence. Attackers have used improvised explosive devices, fire, vehicles, knives, and many other techniques to inflict casualties.
We have to face the truth that conducting mass murder, from a technical perspective, is relatively easy. The attacker gets to choose the means of attack, the location, timing, and targets. It is often said in security management that if you guard everything; you guard nothing. In a free and open society, the risk of mass murder in public spaces will always be there.
Security measures can protect private space, but they may simply displace the attack to outside the perimeter. The value of this displacement can be critical, we have seen a trend to attacking airports outside the checkpoints. While these attacks have caused dozens of casualties, had the same attackers boarded commercial aircraft the casualties would be in the hundreds. If our security measures create bigger targets outside secure spaces, then we have increased the risks of mass violence.
Social Contagion is another factor that will drive trends in mass shootings. When criminals or terrorists have success using a certain tactic, the media reports about that success will inspire others to copycat the methods. Likewise, the failures of attackers, if given sufficient media attention can cause the opposite effect and make people less motivated to commit mass attacks. Unfortunately, events that are stopped by civilians, security forces, and law enforcement prior to major casualties receive little news coverage. Many attackers are seeking fame or infamy in conducting these events. News coverage of such events can teach individuals and groups that mass violence is a way to get your image and your ideas into millions of homes.
Another factor that points toward an upward trend in mass shootings and active threats is an increase in radicalization. Global communications allows anyone to share their ideas, which overwhelmingly has a positive effect on society. This capability can have a dark side, as it provides a means for individuals and groups to spread propaganda around the world at the click of a button.
Rather than getting information from a mainstream sources or a variety of views, individuals are often able to access ‘news’ and opinion that reinforces their beliefs. It is very easy to find an echo chamber of like-minded individuals. This can lead individuals to distrust and hate those outside of the community they identify with. Some individuals then decide to take matters into their own hands as lone wolves. Usually even lone wolves were “raised” in a den full of like-minded individuals. These dens have included friends and family but can also include online and social media networks.
While it is difficult to prevent every attack, there are many things that security professionals can do to reduce the odds of it happening here. The first step is to accept that it can happen here; it can happen anywhere. No location or organization is immune to insider or outsider threats. If your organization has a history of workplace violence or tensions then it may increase the odds that something will escalate. If your organization hosts large crowds it may make it a target due to the concentration of victims available to an attacker. If your organization has a connection to any controversial issues it may lead someone to target you to make a message about that issue.
The second step is to determine the level and type of risk that you face and how vulnerable you are to attack. Always recognize that risk can never equal zero but there are many ways to reduce the risks. At a minimum, organizations should conduct assessments to determine their risk, develop a plan and training for preventing and responding to active threats. All personnel, not just security officers, should be trained to detect indicators and warning signs of violence and radicalization. Most attackers conduct significant surveillance and planning prior to an attack, detecting these warning signs can allow you to interrupt an attack before it occurs. Proper training can teach people what actions are suspicious and proper reporting techniques. This can help avoid discrimination in reporting but can also help avoid hesitance to report for fear of appearing to be discriminating.
Once you know the risks that you face and your vulnerabilities, you can determine what security countermeasures to take to protect your people, customers, and facilities. Some countermeasures are low cost while some are very expensive, the level of risk your organization faces should determine the costs and benefits of implementing security measures. One area that is likely to change is the cost benefit analysis on using armed versus unarmed officers protecting a facility. The threat of mass shootings may lead to an increase in armed officers securing facilities to have a means of stopping an intruder while awaiting police response.
After you have established your risk, your training program and your emergency plans the job is not over! You have to continue to refine and test your plans and assumptions, identifying flaws in security and responses is how we improve. Every organization should also develop a threat assessment team within your organization. This team should include people from various departments and should be tasked with reviewing suspicious activity reporting. This allows you to stay aware of what threats may be occurring and provides a process for connecting the dots.
Ted Wade is an experienced security manager and instructor. A former US Army paratrooper, he has an extensive background in emergency management and serves as President of All Hazards Security (http://www.allhazardssecurity.com/), He is also Chair of the ASIS Central Pennsylvania Chapter 79.
